Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Americans should “absolutely not” expect a recession within the year—on the same day an interview aired in which Trump declined to rule that out. Aaron Schwartz/dpa/ZUMA
Here’s something you won’t read in Mother Jones too often: President Donald Trump was actually right about something—or at least, more right than one of his cabinet secretaries.
In a rare moment of honesty during a Fox News interview that aired Sunday morning, Trump declined to rule out the possibility that the 25 percent tariffs he imposed on Mexico and Canada this past week (and then paused—again), could trigger a recession.
When Sunday Morning Futures host Maria Bartiromo asked if Trump expected a recession this year, he replied, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big—we’re bringing wealth back to America.”
“It takes a little time, it takes a little time,” he added.
Indeed, as Bartiromo pointed out, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates that GDP is expected to shrink by 2.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025—a decline of nearly 5 points from the bank’s positive estimates from mid-February, before the tariffs took effect.
Today exclusively on @SundayFutures with @MariaBartiromo, President Trump @POTUS @realDonaldTrump spoke about tariffs and the economy.@FoxNews pic.twitter.com/wT6zo49wyU
— SundayMorningFutures (@SundayFutures) March 9, 2025
One person who probably was not watching Trump’s interview? Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who was more optimistic in an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, saying that Americans should “absolutely not” brace for a recession—despite the fact that, as host Kristen Welker noted, major banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have recently said there is a higher likelihood of it.
“Donald Trump is a winner. He’s going to win for the American people. That’s just the way it’s going to be. There’s going to be no recession in America,” Lutnick told Welker. He conceded that “some products that are made foreign might be more expensive” but argued that “American products will get cheaper, and that’s the point.”
But as this past week has proved, it’s no so simple: When Trump’s tariffs took effect on Mexico and Canada, the stock market took a nosedive and Canadian officials said they would impose retaliatory tariffs, ultimately leading Trump to pause the tariffs, as he’d already done once before—though he has also said global retaliatory tariffs will take effect on April 2.
Economists have warned that tariffs, which are taxes countries levy on imported goods, will be passed on to consumers. That’s because tariffs raise the wholesale cost of finished goods like cars, clothing, produce, and toys, and also the cost of raw materials for farming, manufacturing, and refining (such as Canadian heavy crude, steel, lumber, fertilizer, gypsum, auto parts, etc). Sellers may eat some portion of the increase, but the rest will be reflected in higher prices, economists predict. What’s more, data from Lutnick’s own department showed that retail sales plunged in January.
Spokespeople for the White House and the Commerce Department did not immediately respond to an email on Sunday asking why Trump and Lutnick are not on the same page. In any case, the boss appears to be right on this one.