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Every good political journalist needs a good MAGA guy in their back pocket — someone you can call when things are looking messy in President Donald Trump’s GOP orbit. And my MAGA guy is John Fredericks.
Fredericks is a popular conservative radio host who goes by one of my favorite nicknames in media: the “Godzilla of Truth.” We met during the last presidential election cycle. I was immediately struck by how he seems to understand Trump’s movement from the bottom up, making sense of Trump voters and their political desires, rather than unpacking the consensus of the political establishment.
So, Fredericks is the perfect person to go to for a pulse check on Trump’s MAGA base. One year into his second term, Trump has some of the lowest recorded approval ratings in polling history. He’s collapsed in favorability among independents. And there seems to be some cracks growing in his 2024 coalition as discontent rises on issues like the economy, the Epstein files, and his deployment of ICE in Minneapolis.
Talking to John, I wanted to gut check the numbers we’ve been seeing for months. How real is the alleged backlash against Trump? And will shifting in public opinion force a change in his agenda?
Below is an excerpt of our conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s much more in the full podcast, so listen to Today, Explained wherever you get podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Pandora, and Spotify.
Let’s start with you. If you could rate the Trump second term on a scale of one to 10, what would you give it?
Ten; he’s delivered on virtually every promise he’s made. The economy is booming right now. The number of refunds you’re going to get back on to be off the charts. He closed the border. We’re not getting any more illegals in. That has been done. That was a major promise. That’s been done. The one big, beautiful bill got passed. He’s put the right people in place. He hasn’t had the turnover. You haven’t had anywhere near the ridiculous leaks and backbiting in the White House that you had in Trump 1, which hampered the whole effort, etc. So, 10. I can’t think of anything it didn’t do.
What surprised you most? Did anything?
Yes, his focus on foreign policy. I really didn’t see that coming. And that therein lies one of his risks now going into the midterms: He’s spending an inordinate amount of time on it. That’s great. Stop wars.
But the risk of this is: People elected him not for foreign policy views. They elected him for affordability, getting prices down, fixing the economy, getting housing, getting interest rates down, doing the things they need to do to improve their quality of life. That hasn’t come yet. And the window is closing going to the midterms.
The numbers tell us that Trump is growing more unpopular. He’s hit a new low in approval ratings. He’s fallen 20 points with independents in just one year. The gains we saw in the election year among Americans of color and among young people have seemed to reverse in the polling.
If things are going as well as you believe they are, why aren’t we seeing the numbers reflect that?
The economy has not reflected the success that’s coming. So, people aren’t feeling the affordability. They’re not feeling the optimism [that] I think we’re going to feel going into the spring and summer when some of these things take hold.
The messaging of the Republicans, as usual, sucks. They couldn’t message their way out of a paper bag if their life depended on it.
Are Americans buying that story though? Because, most Americans are not blaming Joe Biden for this economic state; they’re blaming Donald Trump.
It seems as if you were saying that there is at least some form of concession you’ll make here, that maybe the economy has not turned around in the way that Donald Trump had promised in this first year.
Yes, exactly. All that the electorate needs to know as far as economic statistics is their grocery bill. That’s all you need. If that continues to go up — as it is for all of us — if the price of cars go up, [and] everything is going up, then Trump’s economy has failed, no matter whose fault it is.
He’s there. He’s got to fix that. If you can’t buy a home, you can’t get a mortgage; interest rates are too high, you can’t pay it. Trump’s fault, as it should be — because he’s now going to be accountable. He’s got a very short period of time to turn this around. I’m optimistic that he’s going to do that. But, right now, when you go to the store, and you fill your cart up, you’re feeling the pinch, you’re feeling the pain, and that’s why his numbers are down.
The Epstein files have unleashed a wave of anger even among some Republicans. I’m thinking about folks, like former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene and one of your callers who wondered if justice would come to the victims.
Do you think that Trump’s handling of the files has caused him some issues even among some conservatives?
They should have released all the files on the same day immediately. It’s the biggest mistake he’s made. I really don’t know what the hell Pam Bondi is doing in there.
We got this thing going on in Minneapolis, and she’s making speeches at the Israeli American Conference. Like, get your tail to Minneapolis. Find out what’s going on with that fraud.
There is a perception among some liberals who have described Trump support as cult-like — that whatever he says, folks will follow.
I don’t think that that’s always necessarily true for you, but can you tell me something that Trump has done in his first term, or in his first year returning to office, that you haven’t liked?
I didn’t like what just happened in Minneapolis. I think if you say you’re going to send in the troops and do the Insurrection Act, you back it up. Had he done that, and he sent those 1,500 troops in a month ago, both of these young people would be alive today, because the purpose of sending the troops in was to have checkpoints and to separate ICE agents from the protesters.
But had he sent those troops in originally, both those people would be alive today, because they wouldn’t have been able to confront ICE agents. They would have been cordoned off with a checkpoint. “You guys stay there; ICE is there. ICE goes over there; you guys can come here.”
It does feel as if America is reacting to the dramatic scenes they see in Minneapolis and feeling as if that’s not necessarily the Trump policy they signed up for. I don’t know if people thought that folks would be walking through Target rounding up anyone who has an accent. There seems to be a gap between the expectation and the reality.
You know, Astead, you make a great point, and you really sum this up, the disconnect that’s going on here. You nailed it.
Yeah, we voted to get the illegals out. But then, when we see on TV the way they’re getting them out, they don’t like it. It’s uncomfortable to people. Well, we tried to get them out. We offered them $1,000. We offered self-deportation. Some of them went — a couple of million, right?
But now…you said you were going to get them out. They’re here illegally. You’re not getting amnesty. You got to get them out. And it’s uncomfortable. And it’s going to continue to be uncomfortable. And come November, people are going to have to make their mind up.
Why are Republicans seeming to sound the alarm about some of this when it comes to the midterms? Should there be even a little more concern?
I’m ringing the bell. I’m like Paul Revere. If we don’t get this thing going, we’re going to get wiped out.
You’ve got everything working against you right now to save Congress. And the thing is, Democrats are tough. They win, and Trump’s getting impeached on probably day three, maybe four, if they have another vacation day. He’s done. So the administration’s over. They won’t be able to do anything.
What has to happen? The economy has to get better immediately. The focus has to be on the domestic agenda immediately. Republicans have to get tough immediately. You can’t back down, because if you back down, you lose. So, you got to stand up to this stuff.
Do you think the scenes out of Minneapolis helped or hurt Republican efforts to win elections in November?
Well, obviously, it hurt. I mean, nobody likes seeing innocent people killed, regardless of the circumstance, by law enforcement — period. Nobody likes it. So, of course it hurt.
Is there time to turn the narrative around, fix things? Do this in a way that isn’t as severe that you’re seeing on TV? Nobody wants to see people die. So, we got to find a way. The MAGA movement — President Trump’s got to find a way to get the illegals out without what the scene you’re seeing in Minneapolis. On the flip side of it, if you let the mobs win, you’re done. So, that’s why you have to stand up to it. But, you can’t do it in a way that causes innocent people to die. And I think we can all agree on that.