Cook Political Report election forecaster Dave Wasserman delivered more bad news for Republicans on the midterms.
New @CookPolitical: 19 more House ratings move in Dems’ direction, including six seats from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @ercovey: https://t.co/L0otWdPBXq https://t.co/hFpAxnJ6Rl
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 23, 2026
Wasserman discussed their report on this Friday’s Erin Burnett OutFront on CNN, and called some of the numbers “shocking.” After discussing how toxic the Ramaswamy ad has been, and its potential to infect other races in Ohio, Burnett asked him about their report.
BURNETT: I like the word you just used. That ad has the potential to infect other races. You know, you also shifted 19 House races toward Democrats, and that covers the map, right? We’re going beyond Ohio here, Dave. Texas, North Carolina, obviously states that Trump himself won easily two years ago, now leaning Dem.
I guess the bottom line is, when you look at all of this, does Trump have a chance at this point still to hold on to the House?
WASSERMAN: Not realistically. This is a question of how high this blue wave is going to go and how many Republican seats get swept up. And we’re looking at shocking polling numbers for Republicans, not only in districts that Trump carried by five or 10, but 15 or 20 points.
And I think to the extent there are going to be surprises on November 3rd, I’d look to places with high numbers of secular white voters and also independents. And that points to the Midwest, Iowa, Ohio. Kansas, Nebraska, more so than the Deep South, where things are more racially polarized and it’s more difficult for Democrats to win on turnout alone.
And on a really strong night for Democrats, it’s easy to see how they could exceed the total number of seats they won in 2006 and 2018, given that President Trump’s approval rating today is lower than where it was eight years ago and where George W. Bush’s approval rating was amid the Iraq war. This could get to 235 seats or more.
Fred Wellman had this response to their report, which still has MO-02 as likely R:
@Redistrict @rumpfshaker @CookPolitical @ercovey I’m not one to tell you guys how to do your jobs Dave but MO-2 is in play. https://t.co/REPhZQMc0K
— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) October 23, 2026