We may never get bird flu — or egg prices — under control

It might now be a distant memory, but by the end of last winter, the average cost of a dozen eggs soared to a record high of $6.23. (It’s now at $3.49.)

The cause was H5N1, a highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza — or bird flu — that wild birds shed near farms as they migrate for the winter. It’s now surging again in US poultry operations and could result in another winter of high egg prices — and tens of millions of dead birds.

Over the last two months, the virus was detected on nearly 50 commercial poultry farms, leading to the mass culling of 7.3 million farmed birds — more than during the same period in previous years. Three-quarters of those birds were egg-laying hens from just three egg factory farms.

Although that culling involves an enormous amount of animal suffering, the deaths represent less than 2 percent of US egg-laying hens, which, for now, isn’t enough to meaningfully affect egg prices.

But given the early wave of mortality across a range of species compared to the last couple years, the sheer number of farms that have reported outbreaks, and the fact that a newer bird flu variant has become dominant, it “doesn’t bode well for a quiet year” for the virus, Krysten Schuler — an associate research professor of public and ecosystem health at Cornell University — told me in an email.

For nearly four years, bird flu has wreaked havoc on the US poultry industry and the birds themselves. Federal policy requires that as soon as the virus is detected on a farm, the entire flock must be killed to slow the spread of the disease. So far, poultry farms have killed more than 180 million birds since the start of the outbreak in early 2022. And the prevailing method of killing is grim: Producers close barn vents and pump in heat to raise the temperature, which slowly — and painfully — kills the birds via heat stroke over several hours.

The virus has also spilled over to infect hundreds of other bird species and mammals, including dairy cows, foxes, bears, seals, and pet cats. Seventy human cases have been reported in the US, including one death. Scientists are increasingly worried that the virus could evolve into the next human pandemic.

And it’s been a costly disease. The government has spent billions to manage it, including compensating egg and dairy producers for their losses, while consumers have spent an additional $14.5 billion on eggs in 2024 and 2025 alone, according to one estimate.

Through it all, the egg, chicken, and turkey industries have relied on improving biosecurity on farms — like sealing barn openings and disinfecting vehicles and equipment — in an effort to keep the virus out and killing infected flocks when that doesn’t work.

Several effective bird flu vaccines for use in poultry birds have been licensed in the US, which you’d think would be a no-brainer solution to the outbreak. But they’ve yet to be deployed, because they’d disrupt international trade for the chicken meat industry.

But now, the egg and turkey sectors — which are disproportionately affected by bird flu — are attempting to change that and are pushing for the US Department of Agriculture to advance a vaccination program.

Earlier this year, the trade group United Egg Producers wrote in a report sent to the USDA that the approach of killing birds and beefing up biosecurity is “no longer adequate to prevent and control this devastating disease” and that “it is time for a new approach.”

The egg industry’s bird flu vaccine plan — and why it hasn’t moved forward

To mitigate the impact of the virus, the egg and turkey industries wouldn’t need to vaccinate all of their 300 million hens or 200 million turkeys. Instead, they would focus on farms located in the four major flyways where wild birds migrate and shed the virus, which is where farms have been hardest hit by bird flu.

While many egg and turkey producers are eager to start vaccination programs, the US doesn’t let them over concerns that it would impact the chicken meat industry’s bottom line.

Last year, chicken meat companies exported 14 percent of their product, which is valued at $4.7 billion. But most of the countries that import American chicken meat would pause those imports if any farmed birds in the US are vaccinated, even if no chickens raised for meat are vaccinated.

The reason behind these blanket bans stems from importing countries’ concerns around the so-called “DIVA” problem, which is short for “differentiating infected from vaccinated animals.” It represents the challenge of identifying whether a poultry bird is infected with bird flu or simply has avian influenza antibodies from vaccination.

That’s led the chicken meat industry, for now, to firmly oppose vaccination of any poultry birds in the US. “Until we have written assurances and trade protections in place with our trading partners, we will continue to oppose vaccination for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI),” a spokesperson with the National Chicken Council wrote in an email to Vox. (Losing $4.7 billion in export value would also lead to an oversupply of chicken in the US, which would hurt the industry’s profits.)

But experts say this concern from trading partners can be overcome through increased disease surveillance combined with testing.

Despite the persistent, ongoing spread of bird flu in the US, other countries are able to continue safely importing US poultry products by temporarily suspending imports from certain regions — usually a state or county — actively experiencing an outbreak. The USDA surveils the affected area for bird flu and tests birds until the virus is no longer detected and trade resumes once the US has proven that exports are safe.

“It would be the same approach here with the vaccination strategy,” John Clifford, a former USDA chief veterinary officer and current adviser to the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council, told me. The US would show trading partners “how the US would still protect them, and we would not be shipping them any products that would be unsafe.”

There’s precedent for this approach. Since late 2023, France has been vaccinating ducks against the bird flu, which has proven to be highly effective. But in response, the US and Canada banned poultry imports from France, which the countries lifted early this year after French authorities “succeeded in convincing the American and Canadian authorities of the safety” of vaccination, according to Euro Meat News. The vaccination program has cost French duck producers a little under $2 per bird.

In June, the USDA announced it was developing a vaccination plan to show to countries that import US chicken meat as a way to gauge whether vaccination would disrupt trade. The update represented forward momentum, but some scientific experts, and some in the egg industry, are becoming increasingly impatient with the USDA’s reluctance to allow egg producers to vaccinate.

The agency is, according to them, putting the chicken meat industry’s financial well-being above the massive impacts the bird flu has had on egg, turkey, and dairy producers. I would add that it’s also putting it above American consumers, animal welfare, and broader public health concerns.

The USDA didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Actually measuring the cost of bird flu

Glenn Hickman, a large egg producer in Arizona who had to cull millions of hens earlier this year, has been direct about how he feels about the status quo. “The reason we’re not vaccinating chickens in this country today is because of trade implications…but I’m past caring,” Hickman told the agricultural publication Feedstuffs in July. “I’d like to vaccinate my chickens and protect my flock, and I cannot because of the obstacles that the poultry meat industry is putting in front of this.”

The argument that we shouldn’t vaccinate egg-laying hens and turkeys in order to protect $5 billion or so in chicken meat exports doesn’t sit well with Carol Cardona, a professor at the University of Minnesota’s College of Veterinary Medicine. Cardona told me that when people say the cost of vaccination is too high, she says “the cost of outbreaks is too high.”

“We’re not necessarily measuring” the cost of not vaccinating, Cardona said.

Those costs, she said, include:

There are also, of course, the 182 million birds killed — mostly via painful heat stroke — in the US alone, along with the billions in taxpayer dollars spent to suppress the virus and compensate egg and dairy producers for their losses.

As far as I’m aware, no economist has put a comprehensive dollar amount on the bird flu’s annual toll, but it’s likely much higher than the economic damage it would do to the chicken meat industry. Until policymakers take a more holistic outlook on the industry’s bird flu crisis, those most vulnerable to it — animals, farm workers, and consumers — will continue to bear the heavy burden of this deadly virus.