After Venezuela, who’s next?

None of this should have come as a surprise. The series of boat strikes and murders on the high seas that have taken place in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific since September were a pretty clear sign that Donald Trump was planning to seize control of Venezuela, a sovereign nation, and depose its strongman president Nicolás Maduro. But after the success of the U.S. military’s Operation Absolute Resolve, which was launched in the wee hours of Saturday morning without congressional — legal — authorization and saw the arrest of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and claims by Trump that the U.S. would run the country, the American president swiftly turned his attentions elsewhere.

Trump, along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, made it clear that Cuba, which has a very close bond with Venezuela, is next on the agenda. The country, Trump said, is “ready to fall” and might not require U.S. intervention. But it’s certainly possible an assisted splendid little regime change could happen there as well.

Mexico is also a target. On Saturday, Trump said, “Something’s going to have to be done with Mexico.” Administration officials told Zeteo that Trump is serious about sending in special forces. He followed up his threats in comments to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday by claiming the country is run by drug cartels and saying Mexico should “get their act together.” Claudia Sheinbaum, the country’s president, was unfazed. “This is just President Trump’s manner of speaking,” she said at a news conference.

“Colombia is very sick too — run by a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States, and he’s not going to be doing it very long,” Trump said of Colombian President Gustavo Petro. Asked if a military operation against the country would happen, Trump responded “it sounds good to me.”

Then there is the president’s perennial favorite: Greenland. The semiautonomous Danish territory is “covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place,” Trump said. “We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security.” His comments sent off an international firestorm, with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederikson ordering the president to “stop the threats.” The U.S., she said, has “no right to annex” Greenland, and such a move would almost certainly throw NATO into crisis, of which Denmark is a member.

These threats come even as Trump hasn’t sorted out who is running Venezuela. But it’s clear that, despite running three presidential campaigns on a no-war pledge, the president’s “America First” agenda has nothing to do with anti-interventionism. (Actually, it never did.) In fact, even before the Venezuela operation, Trump has been on something of a spree. In the days before the Venezuelan operation, he had bombed Nigeria and Somalia, and threatened more military action in Iran. In December, he launched strikes on Syria, Iraq and Yemen. This comes amid his boasts of ending a varying number of wars. (His latest tally, which he provided at Saturday’s press availability, was “eight and a quarter.”)

Trump has insisted that American oil companies would shortly be swooping in to invest billions of dollars in the Venezuelan oil fields, which had been nationalized back in the 1970s and more recently were the subject of litigation when Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, cancelled some of the contracts held by international companies. POLITICO reported that Trump has more or less threatened the companies that they will receive no compensation unless they agree to his plans, but they are reluctant to invest in a place in which the security and future are so uncertain.

This appeared to be the only “plan” Trump had in mind to “run the place.” One might have thought the administration would have had the transition mapped out. But unlike opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize recipient Maria Corinna Machado, who has produced a full agenda for a post-Maduro government, which includes oil sector reform, economic recovery, criminal justice, the role of the military and engagement with the international community, there is nothing but Trump blathering about oil.

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Instead, Trump and Rubio have apparently decided to allow Maduro’s regime to stay in place and do as the U.S. orders — or else. Trump told the Atlantic that if Maduro’s former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who is now serving as president, “doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro.”

You don’t have to be clairvoyant to read between those lines. He says he is prepared to order a “second wave” at a moment’s notice if need be.

Whether Rodríguez can deliver is another question. Trump said that “she’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again.” The administration has brushed off her comments that Venezuela will never be a colony again as necessary to pacify her base of “Chávismo” followers of the socialist, populist, political movement started by Chávez. But even if one assumes she is willing, there are big questions about whether that’s even possible.

There are other players in the regime who may not prove as amenable. Maduro was an adept manager of the different power centers in and around the government, including the military, led by defense minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez and the powerful interior minister Diosdado Cabello. The military is deeply entwined in the government, with generals in charge of various functions throughout society. And as a comprehensive CNN report made clear, “there are paramilitary groups that, according to the UN, participated in the cycle of opposition repression during the most intense social unrest of recent years, also play a central role.” They are heavily armed and serve as an extra judicial police force.

The first Trump administration ran war games on regime change in Venezuela that found a distinct possibility that the country could easily fall into chaos, and it’s not hard to imagine a dozen scenarios that would bring that about. Since the administration appears to have put such experts as Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller in charge, the odds are quite high that this could escalate quickly.

Trump and his team are all high on their own supply after this operation, and they appear to be already looking toward their next conquest. Who knows if they’ll be minding the store at all?