NYC’s congestion pricing is unpopular — for now

The first-in-the-nation policy — which tries to reduce traffic and raise revenue for public transit by charging drivers a steep fee to use the busiest roads in Manhattan — has been, to say the least, controversial. Back in June, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul abruptly slammed the brakes on congestion pricing just weeks before it was set to launch, only to eventually bring it back at a lower rate. At the time, a Siena College poll had found that nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers opposed the plan. And since it launched, some people living in and around Manhattan have aired their grievances about the extra charge, and businesses have said that the new scheme will cause them to raise their prices.

It’s way too soon to measure how congestion pricing is faring in New York, either in terms of its popularity or effects on transportation in the region. Commute times have reportedly been shorter on bridges and tunnels entering Manhattan. And while there are anecdotes of quieter streets within the congestion relief zone — which is anywhere in Manhattan south of 60th Street — traffic data so far shows that there hasn’t been much of a change in commuting patterns compared to previous weeks. It’s also hard to say how much of any traffic changes have been a result of congestion pricing as opposed to, say, brutally cold weather.

That’s why it will take many months to get a sense of how successful New York’s congestion pricing model is, and what its other effects may be. Will New York see carbon emissions decrease, for example, like cities with congestion pricing have experienced? Other American cities are also watching how it unfolds to see if they could implement something like it. But in the meantime, New Yorkers eager to know how this will play out can look at how congestion pricing has worked in other cities that have given it a shot.

What New York can learn from other cities

London implemented congestion pricing in 2003, then charging vehicles 5 pounds to enter the city’s busiest streets on weekdays between 7 am and 6:30 pm. Just before the toll was put in place, only 39 percent of Londoners supported the plan — similar numbers to the Siena poll showing the (un)popularity of NYC’s plan.

Five months after the program launched, public support for congestion pricing grew to 59 percent, buoyed by noticeably decongested roads. In the policy’s first year, London saw a 30 percent reduction in traffic.

Stockholm was a similar story. When the city first imposed a congestion tax in 2006, it started with a seven-month trial period. During this time, the policy effectively removed some 100,000 cars off the roads in the relief zone, easing traffic and improving people’s commute times. Shortly afterward, Stockholm residents approved a referendum to make congestion pricing permanent, and public support swelled to 70 percent by 2011.

“In both London and Stockholm, residents were resistant at first but eventually they experienced the promised benefits of reduced traffic and better public transportation and eventually came around to the idea,” said Sarah Kaufman, the director of New York University’s Rudin Center for Transportation.

That doesn’t mean that the same exact trend will play out in New York. For one, New York’s policy is more stringent. In London, weekend tolls are only in place between noon and 6 pm and in Stockholm, drivers aren’t charged a toll on the weekends at all. By contrast, New York will still be charging drivers the peak toll on Saturdays and Sundays from 9 am to 9 pm. New York’s policy also applies year-round, whereas Stockholm’s policy varies: Drivers don’t pay the toll during July, and they pay lower, off-peak prices between December and March.

There are also limits to how much tolling the public is willing to accept. “There was an expansion of the London program between 2007 and 2010 into some wealthier western neighborhoods. [Then-London Mayor] Boris Johnson eliminated the expansion, however, due to continued opposition from the neighborhood,” Yonah Freemark, a researcher at the Urban Institute who often focuses on transportation policy, wrote in an email.

Still, the effects of congestion pricing on the number of vehicles on the road are clear. When Milan, Italy briefly suspended its car tax in 2012 due to a court ruling after car owners protested, traffic quickly soared. Congestion pricing was reinstated after a few months, and traffic again subsided.

So is congestion pricing here to stay?

Examples from cities around the world show that congestion pricing is a resilient policy because public support for the program tends to grow after it launches. But New York’s situation might have unique challenges. One reason is that the opposition includes especially loud voices. President-elect Donald Trump, for example, vowed to end the program by rescinding its federal approval once he’s back in the White House — though it’s unclear whether a move like that could withstand the courts. It’s possible that “a conservative future governor of New York could attempt to stop the program in part or fully,” Freemark added.

Still, positive public opinion would make this more difficult and the key in changing public opinion on the toll is to ensure that residents actually feel the positive effects of it. “The benefits have to go hand in hand with the fees,” Kaufman, from NYU, said.

London, for example, added 300 buses to its fleet when congestion pricing went into effect, showing residents that investments into public transit were actually being made. In the spring, New York is expected to increase service on at least 24 bus routes. “In New York, when somebody sees a new elevator at their home subway station or when their bus trip takes half the time it did before, or they feel like they’re not completely drowning in honking noises as they walk down the street, then New Yorkers will start to appreciate the program,” Kaufman said.

So if lawmakers invested in congestion pricing want to help New York’s policy follow that of other cities, they need to also invest in public transit and follow a simple formula: Make the trains (and buses) run on time, and more driving commuters will happily leave their cars at home.