For the first time in fifty years, there is no nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia. The last agreement between the two global powers came to an end on Thursday, as negotiations over the last remaining joint pact ended in disagreement.
The New START Treaty mandated that both nations be limited to 700 intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers armed with no more than 1,500 nuclear warheads. The treaty was extended in 2021, though Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would be suspending involvement in the agreement in February 2023 in the midst of the invasion of Ukraine.
Putin was reportedly open to extending the treaty in 2025, but President Donald Trump demurred, arguing that China should be part of the pact.
“If it expires, it expires,” Trump told the New York Times in January. “We’ll do a better agreement.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the expiration of the treaty, saying Trump wants to “do something” regarding China’s nuclear arsenal.
“The President has been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile,” Rubio said in a statement.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the treaty played “a positive role in reducing the risks of further undermining strategic stability,” while vowing to remain “ready to take decisive military-technical measures” to security threats.
“At the same time, our country remains open to seeking politico-diplomatic ways to comprehensively stabilize the strategic situation on the basis of equal and mutually beneficial dialogue solutions,” it said in a statement on Wednesday.
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The expiring treaty drew warnings and condemnations from U.S. and Russian lawmakers. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., called the situation “serious.”
“Without a new agreement, we’re at risk of an arms race,” Warren said on Wednesday. “The Trump Administration must continue to pursue arms control deals to keep Americans safe.”
The last U.S.-Russia nuclear weapons treaty expires this week.
Without a new agreement, we’re at risk of an arms race.This is serious.
The Trump Administration must continue to pursue arms control deals to keep Americans safe. pic.twitter.com/fEFjTLq8m0
— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) February 4, 2026
Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., said the expiration “brings great risk for a dangerous and costly” arms race between the U.S., Russia and China.
“As the Doomsday Clock ticks closer and closer to midnight, we must replace New START as soon as we can. We cannot wait any longer,” Markey said in a statement.
Deputy Chair of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev made a cryptic statement on X, which included the phrase “winter is coming.”
That’s it. For the first time since 1972, Russia (the former USSR) and the US have no treaty limiting strategic nuclear forces. SALT 1, SALT 2, START I, START II, SORT, New START – all in the past. pic.twitter.com/D3TBZM9ffC
— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) February 4, 2026
“That’s it. For the first time since 1972, Russia (the former USSR) and the U.S. have no treaty limiting strategic nuclear forces,” Medvedev wrote. “All in the past.”
However, a deal between the U.S. and Russia may still be possible. Sources close to the negotiations told Axios that a “good faith” agreement, under which both countries would continue to follow the expired treaty’s rules, is being discussed.
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