Mexico could turn into Trump’s forever war

When Americans talk about “forever wars,” they usually mean the long conflicts in the Middle East: Iraq and Afghanistan. The 20 years the U.S. spent enmeshed in those countries were painful and expensive, and people are still wondering what they ultimately accomplished. George W. Bush’s administration did manage to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq, and Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of 9/11, was killed on Barack Obama’s watch, but the underlying issues that propelled those wars were never fully resolved. It’s only a matter of time before they bubble up again. 

But half a century ago, another forever war was officially declared, and it continues unabated: the so-called War On Drugs. The name is not a figure of speech or a metaphor. It’s what the war-monger types like to call a “kinetic action,” meaning “physical force, violence, or destructive energy.” 

Since he first announced his candidacy for president in 2015, Donald Trump has been obsessed with Mexico. From the start of his campaign, he slurred Mexicans as “killers and rapists,” scapegoating immigrants from that country and others throughout Latin America and around the world. He decided to build his vaunted border wall in part due to accusations of drug-trafficking, and he even told then-Secretary of Defense Mark Esper that he wanted to use Patriot missiles to destroy fentanyl labs in Mexico. (Trump even said they could just deny any U.S. involvement, apparently thinking that there are other countries in the area that have a ready supply of Patriot missiles.) While he was talked out of taking any action, the issue of drug-trafficking became a cornerstone of his 2024 presidential bid. 

In August 2025, following his return to office, Rolling Stone reported that Trump was considering sending troops into Mexico but leaned toward a “soft invasion in which American special operations would be sent covertly to assassinate cartel leaders.” The Mexican government was not amused by these revelations, and reacted to these threats by reminding the U.S. that Mexico is a sovereign country. But behind the scenes, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has apparently realized that the only way to stop Trump from doing this would be to take such action themselves. 

Responding to this pressure, on Sunday the Mexican government, reportedly with the assistance of U.S. intelligence, assassinated the leader of one of Mexico’s most powerful drug cartels. Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, better known as “El Mencho,” led the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. According to PBS, more than 70 people were killed in the operation, including 25 members of the Mexican National Guard and more than 30 criminal suspects. 

Reactions across the state of Jalisco — home to Guadalajara, Mexico’s third largest city, and the tourist mecca of Puerto Vallarta — were swift. Cartel members set fire to vehicles to block federal police from accessing the cities. They took over airports, resulting in planes being re-routed and the U.S. and Canadian governments issuing shelter-in-place advisories for their citizens who were in the country. According to Mexican authorities, the cartel took action in 20 of Mexico’s 32 states, from Jalisco all the way to the Guatemalan border. 

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Things have calmed for the moment. In Puerto Vallarta, LGTBQ tourists have returned to going out at night. Restaurants, bars and shops have reopened. But people remain on edge, worried about what might come next. The killing of El Mencho, the last of the old-school drug lords, will likely create a power vacuum, and there’s no telling what kind of violence that might spark. More troubling is the fact that the Mexican military is already involved in a year-long operation against the Sinaloa cartel, and there’s concern that they will not have the capacity to fight a two-front war. 

Most analysts see this operation as a big risk for Sheinbaum, but she didn’t have much choice. The drug problem for her country is real, and Mexico has had little success with programs under previous administrations to try to alleviate root causes. And Trump continues to put tremendous pressure on her to do his bidding. 

But Trump is apparently unimpressed with the operation that resulted in the killing of the country’s most powerful drug kingpin. On Sunday, he posted on Truth Social that “Mexico must step up their effort on Cartels and Drugs!” Messages like these make it pretty clear that he’s itching to send in the American military for another Venezuela-style triumph. 

There are currently 1.6 million Americans living in Mexico, and it’s estimated that over 40 million Americans visit the country each year. All it will take is one incident involving any of them and he will almost certainly pull the trigger. It’s a very dangerous situation. 

Michael Burgoyne, an expert on the region, told PBS that Sheinbaum’s action may appease Trump for the moment, but “just taking down one more kingpin is not going to fix drug use in the United States, nor the rule of law in Mexico. These are difficult, complex problems that require a comprehensive solution.”

That, of course, is not in this administration’s wheelhouse. They prefer instant gratification that extends beyond Mexico.

According to the U.S. military, within the last week there have been two more strikes on small boats off the coast of South America that have resulted in the killing of six crew members. Since the government’s air strikes began in September, at least 150 people have been killed in 44 strikes on 45 vessels. That’s just the latest tally in the decades-long war being waged by the U.S. government in its quixotic crusade to stop Americans from being able to access the illegal drugs many crave. 

There is no apparent proof that any of the people the administration is killing in the Caribbean and Pacific are actually trafficking drugs. But that doesn’t seem to matter. Trump has taken to joking, as he did in his State of the Union address, that he’s ended the fishing business in the region because people are afraid of being blown out of the water. The crude line gets big laughs from the MAGA faithful. 

The drug war excuse has come in handy for the president. It allowed him a measure of legal cover to seize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January, and to put him and his wife on trial in America. As it turns out, Trump’s foray into Venezuela was actually about a couple of different drugs that Americans crave: oil and money.

There are 50 years worth of laws on the books giving presidents more and more power to wage this type of war with minimal congressional and legal oversight. Trump has also taken to labeling nearly any action taken by a foreign country “terrorism,” a magic word that allows them to do almost anything. 

After his Venezuela incursion, Trump intimidated various countries in and beyond Latin America by promising similar actions if they didn’t follow his orders. He threatened the president of Colombia, but they seem to have come to terms following a meeting at the White House during which Trump got his ring kissed. The administration also telegraphed that Mexico was in its sights.

Donald Trump likes a show, and with the killing of El Mencho, the Mexican government gave him one. The question now is whether it will be enough. Judging from Trump’s initial reactions, it doesn’t look like it.