With the midterms now upon us, polls continue to suggest that we’re headed for a blue wave election. One thing that might stop it is if Republican voters come out in big numbers on Election Day. But is MAGA even united behind their candidates? And do they have a plan to motivate a base that seems to be souring on a second Trump administration?
Conservative radio host John Fredericks, a longtime Trump supporter whose show offers a window into the MAGA mindset, thinks the GOP can pull off a victory. Fredericks acknowledges that affordability is a real issue for Republicans, who triumphed in 2024 with promises to improve an economy that they haven’t been able to turn around. But he sees Trump as a closer — capable of stepping in at the last minute, firing up his supporters, and helping Republicans pull off an upset.
America, Actually host Astead Herndon spoke with Fredericks about both the financial pressures that voters are feeling and why they might not matter for the president’s most ardent supporters. Fredericks argues that things are improving — and thinks voters know it. He also shared his predictions about how Republicans might pull ahead in the Senate and offered three elections to watch that could be early bellwethers on election night.
Below is an excerpt of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s much more in the full show, so listen to America, Actually wherever you get your podcasts or watch it on Vox’s YouTube channel.
You are in touch with Republican voters and folks in the administration. I think you represent the kind of voice of that MAGA community. In that world, what is the final argument for the midterms?
Stay the course. Things are improving. The underpinnings of the economy are phenomenal. Everything we’re doing, they’re off the charts. Now, consumer spending, way up. It’s up at record levels. People don’t spend their money if they don’t think things are going to go well in the future. They just don’t.
You put a college football game on a Saturday. Every stadium is packed. You put on an NFL game. Every stadium is packed. You can’t get into a game. People have disposable income. That doesn’t mean that they’re not pissed because of gas, they’re not upset because of groceries. Their utilities are too high. Everybody’s upset over the cost of living and gas and diesel. And that’s a real problem.
But at the end of the day, jobs are up, wages are up, and I think our voters, our Trump voters, are going to be patient enough to wait this out.
Look, he had to go into Iran. Obviously, he got intel there that they were too close to getting a bomb, deploying it on a ballistic missile. If they did that, what [would] gas be now, what [would] oil be? Would it be $90 a barrel? It would be $400 a barrel. They’d have the whole world hostage.
President Trump, after five decades, made the decision with Iran. He’d had enough. That’s kind of where we are. We need patience and grace.
I hear that, but the last inflation report before the election showed that consumer prices are up 3.7 percent year to year. You have gas hovering at about $4 nationally. As we both know, the fundamental promise of this administration was about lowering prices. They were pointing to things like grocery prices, meat prices. They were pointing to gas prices under Biden.
Can’t we at least acknowledge that Trump has not followed through on his promises on that front?
If affordability was not an issue, the Republicans would win this election in a landslide. There’s no doubt about it. Things are too expensive for people, and having the interest rates go up doesn’t help either. Everybody can see that. Everybody feels it. I go to the store with my family, we feel it. You put gas in your car. It’s like $4. These [prices] have gotta come down.
I appreciate that you’re saying that, because we’re hearing a lot of Republican candidates basically say, “Well, Biden was worse.” But we’re talking about right now.
The closing argument here is the fundamentals are getting better.
President Trump’s plan is working. It’s just taking time. And certainly his decision to stop Iran from getting a bomb from the intel that he got from our intel agencies [matters]. We don’t know how far Iran would be now had he not done that. So President Trump had to make that decision. It’s painful. It’s going to cost us seats. There’s no doubt about it. Can we hang on? I still think we can. The MAGA base is there.
This argument that the MAGA base is crumbling is coming from right-wing clickbaiters. And you know who clicks on them? The Democrats. This is the doom loop, right? It’s all doom. It’s all gloom.
Even you are acknowledging a slight affordability problem for this administration. You’re acknowledging that the Iran war is going to cost the party some seats. So can we say that this is all made up by doom grifters?
It’s not slight, it’s real.
I’m not disagreeing on the affordability issue or the gas or diesel prices or the price of meat. Nobody’s disagreeing with that. The fundamental thing is, are MAGA voters going to stay home and abandon the president?
The Trump voters [are] going to turn out, and I think they’re going to give this president the benefit of the doubt. This is now a turnout election. Here’s the problem the Democrats have: The polls are fake. They won the summer. We’re winning the fall. Trump is a closer. And I think that that patience is going to be there.
It’s not where we’d like it to be. But you can see the fundamentals are getting better [in] this economy, and you have a job. The main thing is that you have a job and you don’t feel like your job’s at risk.
You have a job, your income is up, you have disposable income. It’s not where you’d like it to be, but that is what’s gonna drive this thing. You’re not spending money at a record level if you think you’re gonna get laid off. You just don’t.
When you look ahead to election night, what does success look like to you for Republicans?
Holding the Senate and holding the House. Anything else is a failure. Now I happen to think we’re gonna gain two seats in the US Senate. I’m the only person saying that in America. I have no doubt about it.
You are. If it happens, we’ll give you the credit for sure.
I think the House is going to be very, very close. I’ll tell you the race to watch. And it’s going to be over by 9, 9:15.
Go to Virginia and go to Hampton Roads, the Second District in Virginia. Jen Kiggans [versus] Elaine Luria, the Democrat challenger. [Luria] was [in the office] before, then Kiggans was there. This seat has flipped back and forth since Obama.
It’s an early bellwether seat that could tell people where the night’s going.
That is the bellwether seat. If Kiggans holds this seat, it is going to be a very good night for Republicans. There are two other races to watch. [One of the] two to look at early is Rob Wittman [of Virginia’s First District]. If he wins that race, it’s a good sign. If he gets beat, they’re in trouble.
The other one is [Brian] Fitzpatrick in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, a moderate RINO Republican outside of Philadelphia. If [Democrats are] ever gonna take that seat, they’re gonna take it now.
I’m gonna predict if those three [candidates] win, the Republicans are gonna hold the House.
